The day after the last school bell rang and the warm winds of summer beckoned, my family would begin packing for our week at a rental cottage not far from a beach called Point Breeze. Our family of ten shared this four bedroom place with my aunt and uncle and six cousins, creating the kind of pandemonium only children can love. And as Buffalo city kids who spent eight months of the year wearing sweaters, we whined and paced like dogs in a boarding kennel until the day of departure for the beach finally arrived.
All photos copyright Moxie Gardiner.
Point Breeze would probably not make the list of the Most Beautiful Beaches in America. There is no soft white sand, no boardwalk or amusement park, no high rise apartments or cabanas to rent. Like all Lake Erie beaches, it was painfully rocky and filled with the unlovely debris of winter storms, prompting some families to come equipped with small rakes to clear a place before laying down their blanket and picnic basket.
Nonetheless, we loved it. We would dare each other to be the first one to dive into the cold lake, then hop out shivering to be wrapped in one of the many towels our mothers dutifully hauled with them. We would buy ice cream sandwiches at the nearby corner store and warm ourselves by a driftwood bonfire at night. When we got older, we would spend hours sitting on one of the lake’s many ragged outcroppings, letting the waves hit us and drag us into the water. Those hours along the shores of Lake Erie are among my fondest childhood memories.
Is it any wonder then, at this stage of my life, with the kids grown and a new appreciation for spending time with extended family, I would long to return to Lake Erie, this time in my own cottage with a view of my beloved lake?
Alas, it is not to be. At least for now.
When I began to look for a lake house last summer, little did I know that gazillions of other people had the same idea. Low mortgage rates, housing shortages, increasing opportunities to work remotely, more retirees looking for second homes, millions of Millennials simultaneously trying to buy first homes, people with stimulus money in their pockets, and an overheated stock market all combined to make this one of the worst times to buy real estate in history. Talk about the right idea at the wrong time!
A recent Buffalo News article[1] described the current Western New York housing market as follows:
- There are nearly three times as many real estate agents as there are homes for sale.
- The number of homes for sale is down 44% from a year ago
- The median sale prices of homes sold over the past 12 months has jumped by 12% to an all-time high of $177,000 (still a bargain, comparatively speaking).
- Sellers are consistently getting more than they’re asking for on each house. Real estate agents said it’s not unusual for buyers to offer $30,000 to $40,000 over asking, and still not win.
It seems hard to believe that less than a decade ago, Buffalo’s Urban Homestead program was encouraging Buffalo residents to buy fixer-upper homes in the city for a dollar. So imagine my surprise when I waded into this frenzied market and learned that even if I bid on an old house—with no contingencies, no inspection, all cash, with an offer significantly over the asking price—I STILL wasn’t likely to get it. My real estate agent said she is working with clients who have lost out on seven or eight houses and are becoming desperate, making offers far above the appraisal price.
My wise old grandfather once told me that when the milkman tells you he has decided to invest in the stock market, it is time to get out. Do the opposite of what the crowd is doing, he said, and you’ll be all right. It has proven to be sage advice. So I will take a step back and put my dreams of a lake house on hold, hoping that the market will cool in our lifetime.
But will it? It’s anyone’s guess.
No one knows how long it will take home builders to get ahead of the current housing shortage, or how soon all the Millennials will have bought their first homes, or when current homeowners will no longer be reluctant to sell. I wish I knew how long mortgage rates will stay historically low, or the stock market will remain historically high, before inflation runs rampant and everything comes crashing down.
Unlike many others, I am in a position to wait and am willing to gamble that prices will come down sooner rather than later. How about you? Are you considering buying real estate right now, or are you, like me, willing to put your dream on hold for at least another summer or two?
I would love to hear your thoughts on this. Please share them in the comments below!
- [1] “Housing shortage hammers homebuyers,” Buffalo News, Jonathan D. Epstein, Apr 15 2021, Updated May 15 2021.
Moxie Gardiner is a writer and gardener who grew up on the West Side of Buffalo, NY. In a previous life she was a journalist, magazine editor, speech writer, and policy wonk. Back in the day she made three solo parachute jumps, flew in an F-15 fighter jet, and crawled through mud pits at the Jungle Operations Training Course in Panama. She now meditates and practices yoga. She is almost ready to publish her first novel, set in Buffalo.